An American professor who has devised a system that has helped him correctly predict the last eight US presidential elections says that Donald Trump will emerge victorious on November 8.
Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, says that he judges candidates by certain criteria that he calls ‘the 13 keys to the White House.’
The professor told The Washington Post that the key are simple true-false statements built on the premise that presidential elections are a referendum on the performance of the incumbent in the White House and the party that he represents.
Lichtman’s 13 keys, which he explains in-depth in his book, Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016, are:
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
With the election less than two months away, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is slightly ahead in the latest polls.
Still, Lichtman says that Trump has the upper hand.
‘The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of "true" always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats,’ he says.
‘And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House.’
‘And if six or more of the 13 keys are false - that is, they go against the party in power - they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years.’
The professor says that despite the fact that President Barack Obama will leave office with relatively high popularity numbers, that will not necessarily help Clinton since she lacks his charisma.
Another factor working against Clinton is the fact that the Democrats suffered significant losses during the most recent midterm elections.
Clinton is also running after Obama’s second term did not boast of any significant domestic or foreign policy achievements, like the Affordable Care Act.
Lichtman told the Post that he finds many flaws in Trump, particularly his propensity to ‘enrich himself at the expense of others.’
‘My prediction is based off a scientific system,’ he says.
‘It does not necessarily represent, in any way, shape or form, an Allan Lichtman or American University endorsement of any candidate.’
‘And of course, as a successful forecaster, I've predicted in almost equal measure both Republican and Democratic victories.’
Daily Mail.com
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