Justin Yifu Lin: China may join the ranks of high income countries in five years

Justin Yifu Lin, renowned economist and a professor of Peking University, said that China may rank among high income countries in 2020, when attending the First Great Minds China Forum and the founding conference of Beijing Contemporary Economics Foundation on Sept. 12 in Beijing, Beijing News reported.

Lin said that Chinese mainland may rank among high income countries in 2020. Following South Korea and China's Taiwan province, Chinese mainland will be the world’s third economy that has ascended from low-income economy to middle-income economy and further to high-income economy.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's per capital GDP was 6,767 USD in 2013, and the figure was 7,575 USD in 2014, representing a growth of 12 percent.
However, not all the developing countries can maintain such a growth rate. Lin also pointed out that many developing countries are facing problems such as low income or the middle-income trap.

According to Lin, from 1950 to 2008, only 13 middle-income economies ascend to high-income economies, among which 8 are west European countries or oil producing countries. And the rest five are Japan and the so-called "Four Asian Tigers" in 1970s and 1980s.

"The average growth of per capita GDP in developed countries is 2 percent. If the growth of per capita GDP of a developing country doesn't exceed 2 percent, it can't narrow the gap with developed countries," Lin said.

In Lin's point of view, the per capita GDP growth of developing countries is very unsatisfactory. So far, he hasn't seen any developing countries that adopt mainstream Western development theories achieve success.

- People's Daily